An analysis of deaths involving COVID-19 that occurred between 2 January and 2 July 2021 in England, by vaccination status. It’s a detailed analysis of deaths involving COVID-19 that occurred in fully vaccinated individuals, published by UK Office for National Statistics.
Here are the main points of the analysis:
- In England, between 2 January and 2 July 2021, there were 640 deaths occurred in people who were fully vaccinated, which includes people who had been infected before they were vaccinated.
- The risk of death involving COVID-19 was consistently lower for people who had received two vaccinations compared to one or no vaccination.
- “Breakthrough cases” are where infection has occurred in someone who is fully vaccinated, whereas we define a “breakthrough death” as a death involving COVID-19 that occurred in someone who had received both vaccine doses and had a first positive PCR test at least 14 days after the second vaccination dose; in total, there were 256 breakthrough deaths between 2 January and 2 July 2021.
- 13.1% of breakthrough deaths occurred in people who were identified as likely to be immunocompromised from hospital episodes or causes of death, compared to 5.4% for other COVID-19 deaths.
Deaths involving COVID-19 by vaccination status
The risk of a new infection following vaccination is highest during the first 21 days after the first vaccination, as shown by analysis of the COVID-19 Infections Survey.
There were 458 deaths involving COVID-19 in people who received their second dose at least 21 days before the date of death.
Table: There were 640 deaths involving COVID-19 of people who had received both vaccination doses
| Vaccination status | Deaths involving COVID-19 | Non-COVID-19 deaths | COVID-19 deaths as percent of all deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| All deaths regardless of vaccination status | 51,281 | 214,701 | 19.3 |
| Unvaccinated | 38,964 | 65,170 | 37.4 |
| Deaths within 21 days of first dose | 4,388 | 14,265 | 23.5 |
| Deaths 21 days or more after first dose | 7,289 | 66,533 | 9.9 |
| Deaths within 21 days of second dose | 182 | 11,470 | 1.6 |
| Deaths 21 days or more after second dose | 458 | 57,263 | 0.8 |
Source: Office for National Statistics – National Immunisation Management Service, NHS Test and Trace
Characteristics of breakthrough deaths
The linked data includes 252 breakthrough deaths and 43,956 total deaths involving COVID-19, 98.4% and 85.7% respectively of all breakthrough and total deaths involving COVID-19 that occurred between 2 January and 2 July 2021.
| Breakthrough deaths | Other deaths involving COVID-19 | Non COVID-19 deaths | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median age | 84 | 82 | 82 |
| Male | 154 (61.1%) | 22,819 (52.2%) | 89,498 (48.5%) |
| Female | 98 (38.9%) | 20,885 (47.8%) | 94,901 (51.5%) |
| Clinically extremely vulnerable | 193 (76.6%) | 32,567 (74.5%) | 128,454 (69.7%) |
| Not clinically extremely vulnerable | 59 (23.4%) | 11,137 (25.5%) | 55,945 (30.3%) |
| Limited a lot by long-term health problem or disability | 80 (31.7%) | 12,152 (27.8%) | 44,642 (24.2%) |
| Limited a little by long-term health problem or disability | 80 (31.7%) | 12,604 (28.8%) | 50,817 (27.6%) |
| Not limited by long-term health problem or disability | 92 (36.5%) | 18,948 (43.4%) | 88,940 (48.2%) |
| Immunocompromised | 33 (13.1%) | 2,360 (5.4%) | 18,049 (9.8%) |
| Not immunocompromised | 219 (86.9%) | 41,344 (94.6%) | 166,350 (90.2%) |
Source: Office for National Statistics – Public Health Data Asset, National Immunisation Management Service, NHS Test and Trace
- The median age for breakthrough deaths was 84 and 61.1% of the deaths occurred in males, despite there being more elderly women than men, and therefore initially more fully vaccinated women who could experience a breakthrough death. For all other deaths involving COVID-19 occurring between 2 January and 2 July 2021 in the PHDA dataset, the median age was 82 and 52.2% were male.
- 13.1% of the breakthrough deaths occurred in people who were immunocompromised, compared to 5.4% for other deaths involving COVID-19.
- A greater proportion of breakthrough deaths occurred in those who were clinically extremely vulnerable (76.6%, 193 deaths), than other COVID-19 deaths (74.5%, 32,567 deaths) or non-COVID-19 deaths (69.7%, 128,454 deaths).
- A similar trend is observed for disability and long-term health problem status, with proportions of deaths among people self-reporting that they are “limited a lot” on the 2011 Census as 31.7%, 27.8% and 24.2% for breakthrough deaths, other deaths involving COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 deaths respectively.
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